11 Wildly Varying Predictions for the Outdoor Industry in 2026
Every year, we put our reputation on the line and take big swings at predicting what the future holds for the outdoor industry. Most of the time we agree with each other. 2026 is different. This year, our VP, Group Creative Director Stephen Coomber and Director, Outdoor Strategy John Entwistle have ended up on separate sides of the sandbox. What to do? Just like we do with trends each year, we bet on it. Coomber and Entwistle have their annual round of golf on this one. Time will tell who takes it to the cup, but we’re here for every single round. Over the course of 2026, we’ll follow up with insights and resolutions of where these predictions are ringing true or falling flat. Stay tuned to Origin’s social channels and future newsletters for our take on how these predictions transpire, and what the heck to do about them.
Director, Outdoor Strategy John Entwistle
| Handicap: No comment. |
| Clubs: Whatever hand-me-downs he gets from his dad and brother |
| Favourite Course: Furry Creek, BC |
| Rounds played in 2025: 11 (one with Coomber) |
Short Kings
As a society of “screenslavers,” we have become addicted to dopamine hits like short-form content that, despite efforts to revive long-form content as mainstream, will remain specific (and effective) with niche audiences. Naturally, well-thought-out, long-form content will remain effective with engaging cult audiences, but the days of the outdoor blockbuster are going the way of the cinema.
Building (Content) Blocks
Bite-sized content that builds a fuller, more robust story will hold value. Led by podcasts, short snippets of longer-form content will continue to be served and consumed via social channels. The longer-form content guides the story and the narrative, and the highlights drive the engagement and adoption.
Refine the Robots
We will find a balance between AI slop and purposeful AI content. 2025 was the year of emerging technology, and AI creators were throwing anything and everything against the wall to see what stuck. Most of it sucked. As technology improves, though, the better AI creators will produce entertaining, effective, ad-respected content using AI image, sound and video generation that fits seamlessly into your social feed. Will it stop your uncle from posting lazy AI slop? Of course not.
Easy Outdoors
Getting outside will become less complicated. Surely, we must be nearing the tipping point of desperately convincing people that they need new Gore-Tex shoes, a seam-welded backpack, GPS tracking device and a running vest to simply walk in the woods. To continue to grow, brands need to simplify their gear offerings to more broadly appeal to a less hardcore audience. There is room to grow, but we need to meet them where they are: in the mainstream.
Cheap … Kind Of. Not really.
Skiing will get cheaper. Well, it will probably get more expensive. But after years of small price increases to mega-passes and conglomerates undercutting the whole of the industry, resorts will need to make pricing as competitive as possible or risk skiing returning to its privileged legacy as an exclusive activity for the rich.
VP, Group Creative Director Stephen Coomber
| Handicap: One better than John’s |
| Clubs: Tommy Armour Evo Blades (Couldn’t hit them in high school, can’t hit them now) |
| Favourite Course: El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba |
| Rounds played in 2025: 10 (one with John) |
We Gotta Stay Positive
It’s been a heckuva hectic journey these past few years, and we expect 2026 will deliver a healthy dose of hope and optimism. Yes, the world seems wildly off axis at the moment, which is more reason why we need it. The outdoor industry is primed to lead the way as we see greater participation from a more diverse audience looking to nature for a heavy dose of mental wellness. As brands welcome them with open arms, we’ll need equally diverse creative to resonate.
Down With the LLMs
We will see a return to brands respecting human intelligence, curiosity and curated taste. Programmatic, personalization, best practices, ad formats and algorithms have pushed advertising to cater to the lowest common denominator. Everything is too fast and too optimized, reduced to algorithm manipulation over tapping into human truth or emotion. Let’s get back to a little mystery – we want the audience guessing, so they enjoy a well-deserved "Ah-ha!" moment.
The Return of Substance Porsche's human-made, fully illustrated holiday ad "The Coded Love Letter" gives us hope. The positivity in this creative showcases peoples’ respect for craft and hints at a hunger for something deeper. Add more easter eggs. Cater to the human hidden in the mire of the metrics.
Long Is Strong
Longer-form, cinematic and episodic content on social will continue to grow, again showing that audiences want to be entertained, challenged to think or feel. Let’s make reading (or at least paying attention) cool again.
IRL
Consumers will continue to question doomscrolling and AI slop. They will increasingly seek digital detox. Brands will need to focus on how they show up for fans outside of their phones. While the stats continue to remind us of how unsocial social media has made us, people are still craving connection, and brands have a big opportunity to lend a hand to those brave humans trying to build communities and connect like-minded individuals.
Bring Back the Promise of the Internet
Remember when people connected – rather than clashed – online? We will see a continued shift to communities forming around individual passions in 2026. People will find each other through fandoms and niche interests. This enables brands to create richer stories to give these groups and communities something to talk about, share and rally around.
The Conclusion
While Origin’s intrepid leadership may differ on what 2026 will bring, it’s a position we embrace. Trends are intangible and fleeting, and to stay on top of the ball you need to hold a bag full of versatile swings. That’s what we will do – keep an eye on what comes next while carrying decades of experience with us from project to project. Stay connected and keep Coomber and Entwistle accountable in 2026. There are 18 holes depending on it.
